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I caught an article today on ZDNet talking about new devices on the way this year, and the fact that they could lead to a decline in BlackBerry sales. Specifically, they were talking about HTC, makers of the vaunted Touch, and of course the iPhone. Also thrown in there is the mobile internet device being developed by Intel, which is basically a mini mini laptop. Still, I have a hard time believing that any of these will significantly cut into RIM’s sales this year.

“Part of the success of the BlackBerry is its simplicity,” said Simpson. “Even though the device has some multimedia features, it does what it is designed to do very simply. The biggest need within its target market is constant communications — things like email and calendaring. It just happens to do those in a very simple way — in a way that is undemanding in terms of bandwidth, and deeply integrated into the popular Exchange and Lotus email and calendaring platforms.”

It seems that the devices in question are all a bit fancier than the BlackBerry, which actually might be a turn-off to corporate buyers, who account for a good portion of RIM’s sales. They want simplicity, and they’re simply not going to get it from an iPhone.

“An awful lot of people who have a BlackBerry never use any other application but email,” Simpson said.

This is important to remember in this debate, because much of the argument in favor of the HTC Touch centers around its Windows Mobile platform. Yes, Windows Mobile integrates better for desktop syncing than RIM devices do. However, that’s not foremost on the common businessperson’s mind. Push email tops the list, and no device does that better than the BlackBerry.

It’s for the reason of pure mobility that Simpson said he expects the BlackBerry killer to come not necessarily from devices aimed squarely at the corporate market but from those moving into the corporate world from the hands of consumers.

Yes, but remember that BlackBerry has a number of consumer-targeted devices, too. Let us not forget the Pearl, which I’m seeing more and more of my friends carrying. Then, later this year we’re going to be introduced to the CDMA Curve, which crosses the barrier into consumer phone a bit further than the 88xx series.

Oh, and don’t forget the patent RIM just filed for a touchscreen device. This lends credit to all of the 9000 series rumors.

So yes, RIM will be facing a greater level of competition in 2008 than they have in years past. However, they have a brand name and reputation that can carry them through the year. Not only with the devices they currently have, but with what they have in store.

[ZDNet]

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